In April, a large life insurer announced plans to use Fitbit data and other health data to award points to insureds, providing impressive life insurance discounts for those who participated in “wellness-like” behaviors. The assumption is that people who own a Fitbit and who walk should have lower mortality. That sounds logical. But we’re in insurance. In insurance, logic is less valuable than facts proven with data. Biases can creep into the models we use to launch new products. Everyone comes to modeling with her own set of biases. In some conference room, there is probably something like this on a whiteboard: “If we can attract people who are 10% more active, in general, we will drive down our costs by 30%, allowing us to discount our product by 15%.”