Insurers know that many small businesses in the US—those with up to 30 workers—will eventually buy insurance directly online. What insurers don’t appreciate is how fast this shift is likely to happen. According to estimates by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), about 17% of premiums in the US small-business market will be digitally underwritten by 2018. (See the exhibit, “Digital Underwriting Is Taking Off in the US Small-Business Insurance Market.”) If that is achieved, it will be more than four times the level of 2015 and represent about $13 billion in direct written premiums.